Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a tight range after a strong rally last week, as traders remain cautious ahead of key upcoming macroeconomic developments.

Reports indicate that the deadline for US President Donald Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" falls on Friday, while the temporary suspension of tariffs ends in early July, potentially adding a new layer of uncertainty to the market.

This caution was reflected in data from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw over $340 million in outflows on Tuesday, ending a 15-day streak of positive inflows since June 9.

As of 12:29 GMT, bitcoin rose 1.2% to $107,800 on CoinMarketCap.

Traders Cut Risk Amid Trade Uncertainty

A report by K33 on Tuesday noted that bitcoin remained in an exceptionally tight range throughout the week, with 7-day volatility falling to 0.79%, the lowest weekly volatility recorded since October 14, 2023, according to the chart included in the report.

Last week’s ceasefire between Iran and Israel triggered a rally that pushed bitcoin up by more than 7%, closing above $108,000. However, the rally stalled, and bitcoin retreated below $106,000 on Tuesday as political discussion resurfaced around Trump’s budget bill and related tariff debates.

The US Senate passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on Tuesday with a narrow 51-50 vote. The bill now heads to the House, as Trump seeks to finalize his budget by Friday. Additionally, the suspension of tariffs is scheduled to expire on July 9. Both events could impact bitcoin depending on whether expansive fiscal policy or trade uncertainty prevails.

Besides the bill and the tariff deadline, low liquidity due to the US Independence Day holiday on July 4 may further add to market uncertainty, prompting traders to reduce risk exposure.

Important US economic data is also expected this week, most notably the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday, which could once again influence market expectations on the interest rate path.

Early Signs of Weakening Institutional Demand for Bitcoin

New data is showing early signs of weakening institutional demand for bitcoin. According to SoSoValue, US bitcoin ETFs posted $342.25 million in outflows on Tuesday, the highest level of withdrawals since May 30. This also ended a streak of positive inflows that began on June 9. If institutional outflows persist, they could lead to further downside in bitcoin prices.

In a related development, Arizona’s bitcoin reserve bill (HB2324) was revived last month. The bill aims to establish a fund of digital assets confiscated in criminal cases. However, it failed to become law after being vetoed by Governor Katie Hobbs on Tuesday.

Hobbs justified her decision by arguing the bill might discourage local law enforcement from cooperating with state authorities on digital asset seizures.

Bitwise: Bitcoin to Reach $136,000 in July for Three Reasons

Bitwise Asset Management said bitcoin could climb to $136,000 in July for three reasons.

In a report issued Tuesday, the firm stated that bitcoin could overcome its typical summer stagnation and post a 30% surge this month.

First, bitcoin historically gains after geopolitical tensions such as the recent conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran.

Second, institutions are purchasing more bitcoin than miners are bringing to market.

Third, global interest rate cuts are injecting liquidity into markets, creating a supportive environment for bitcoin and the broader crypto space.

Analysts Andrei Dragos and Ayush Tripathi from Bitwise wrote: “These favorable factors create a constructive backdrop for bitcoin and digital assets as we enter July.”

Oil futures rose on Wednesday after Iran announced it will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), while investors assess expectations of increased supply from major producers next month amid continued weakness in the US dollar.

Brent crude rose 60 cents, or 0.9%, to $67.71 a barrel as of 10:17 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $66 a barrel.

Brent traded between a high of $69.05 a barrel and a low of $66.34 since June 25, as concerns eased over supply disruptions in the oil-producing Middle East following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.

On Wednesday, an Iranian law came into effect requiring that any future inspections of its nuclear sites by the IAEA must obtain approval from the “Supreme National Security Council” in Tehran. Iran accused the agency of bias toward Western countries and of providing justification for the airstrikes carried out by Israel.

Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, said: “The market is pricing in some geopolitical risk premium as a result of Iran’s move against the IAEA.” He added: “But this is about sentiment and fears—there are no actual disruptions in oil supplies so far.”

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, noted that the planned increases in supply by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia—collectively known as OPEC+—already appear to be priced in by investors and are unlikely to surprise markets at this point.

Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, a figure similar to the hikes agreed upon for May, June, and July.

Staunovo said: “Everyone is talking about additional supplies coming to the market, but in reality those barrels haven’t arrived yet,” pointing out that “this may be due to those volumes being consumed domestically within the producing countries.”

Data from Kpler showed that Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, increased its oil exports in June by 450,000 barrels per day compared to May, marking the highest pace in over a year. However, Staunovo added that total OPEC+ exports have remained stable or slightly declined since March, and he expects this trend to continue over the summer as energy consumption rises due to high temperatures.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continued its decline, reaching its lowest level against major currencies in three and a half years early on Wednesday. A weak dollar is considered supportive for oil prices as it boosts the appeal of crude for buyers using other currencies.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said upcoming US non-farm payrolls data due Thursday will play a key role in shaping investor expectations around the timing and depth of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the second half of this year.

He added that interest rate cuts would stimulate economic activity, which could in turn increase demand for oil.

The US Energy Information Administration is expected to release its official data on US crude inventories on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Data released late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute showed US crude inventories rose by 680,000 barrels last week, a period that typically sees stockpile declines due to peak summer demand, according to informed sources.

The US dollar kept falling to near February 2022 lows against a basket of major rivals, as traders assess the impact of US President Trump’s massive tax bill and tariff deadline.

Now traders also await crucial US payrolls data for June, scheduled on Friday.

The euro fell 0.3% today to $1.1774, still near September 2021 highs, while Sterling lost 0.15% to $1.3722, away from 3-? year highs. 

The dollar rose 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 143.8, sending the dollar index slightly higher towards 96.744.

The first half of 2025 has been the worst for the dollar since the seventies, due to factors that include: 

Political uncertainty that pushed fund managers to hedge their dollar holdings

Reduced long-term buy positions on the dollar

Increasing bets that the Fed will start easing monetary policies this year.

US President Donald Trump’s recent tax bill raised concerns about the financial stability of America, with ongoing uncertainty as well about US trade deals. 

Investors are now betting on a faster pace of Fed rate cuts this year, while waiting for crucial US data this week, including the payrolls report on Friday. 

Trump continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and sent Fed Chair Powell a list of interest rates by global central banks, saying that US rates should be between the 0.5% Japanese rate and the 1.75% Danish rate.

US Rates

Investors interpreted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last week Congressional testimony as leaning cautious, after saying that rate cuts are likely if inflation doesn’t rise this summer in response to tariffs.

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut in July stood at 20%.

The odds of such a cut in September stood at a much better 93%.

Gold prices fell in European trade on Wednesday for the first time in three days under pressure from the stronger dollar.

The dollar held its ground above three-year lows after US job opportunities data, which rose in May, with traders awaiting more crucial labor data later on.

The Price

Gold prices fell 0.35% today to $3327 an ounce, with a session-high at $3345.

On Tuesday, gold prices rose 1.1% away from recent five-week lows at $3247.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose .3% on Wednesday away from three-week lows at 96.38, on track for the first profit in eight days.

Recent US data showed job opportunities rose to 7.77 million by the end of May, beating estimates of 7.32 million.

The data showcases the flexibility of the US labor market ahead of new crucial private sector and government payrolls data this week.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the bank would’ve cut interest rates if it weren’t for President Trump’s tariff plans. 

In response to a question at the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal, he said the Fed paused its moves on interest rates when it saw the size of the tariffs, with inflation forecasts rising after their announcement. 

Markets are also monitoring US President Trump’s big tax bill, which passed the Senate and headed to the House, and is expected to add $3.3 trillion to total government debt. 

US Rates

Investors interpreted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last week Congressional testimony as leaning cautious, after saying that rate cuts are likely if inflation doesn’t rise this summer in response to tariffs.

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut in July stood at 20%.

The odds of such a cut in September stood at a much better 93%.

SPDR

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust fell 4.3 tons yesterday to a total of 948.23 tons, the lowest since June 18.